Carolina travels to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College tonight, after hammering NC State on the weekend, 84-64. Carolina sits at 15-5 (5-1 ACC), and BC is currently 14-7 (4-3 ACC). The early Vegas line lists Carolina as a two point favorite. Carolina and BC have met only once each of the last two seasons, both being BC victories. The most shocking of the two was the ACC opener in 2009, with BC handing Carolina its first loss of the season. Last five meetings:
2/20/2010: BC 71(home) - 67 Carolina
1/4/2009: BC 85 - 78 Carolina (home)
1/31/2008: Carolina (home) 91-69 BC
3/1/2008: Carolina 90 - 80 BC (home)
2/17/2007: Carolina 77 - 72 BC (home)
Carolina wins if:
1. The transition game gets going. BC generally plays a slow, controlled offensive set, and Carolina must force turnovers and run. We've seen how the Heels struggle in the halfcourt set on offense, and forcing turnovers and quick run-outs will be key.
2. Harrison Barnes can continue his great play he displayed v. NC State. Barnes had his best offensive game of his short career, scoring 25 points on 10-16 shooting on Saturday. Barnes is supremely talented, and when his shots are falling, he's impossible to guard.
3. Reggie Jackson is held under 20 points. Jackson leads BC in scoring, hitting almost 19 points a game this season, and averaging 21.5 ppg in BC's four ACC victories. But, in BC's three conference losses, Jackson is only averaging 14 ppg.
4. Carolina can neutralize the BC home court advantage. BC is 4-0 in the ACC at home, but 0-3 away. Carolina has to come out like they did against NC State, and not fall behind early like in games against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami.
Carolina has won 8 of 9, while BC has lost 5 of 9. I think Carolina continues to play well, and wins a close, low-scoring game. Prediction: Carolina 71 - BC 65
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