Quote of the Day
"It means that we lost a game." -Kendall Marshal in response to a reporter's question about what going 3-1 over the last four games means to the team. The kid is a leader, folks.
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Saturday's second meeting between Clemson and Carolina, coupled with Florida State hosting Virginia, makes for a big ACC weekend. As of right now, the top 4 in the ACC look like this:
1. Duke 9-1
2. Carolina 7-2
3. Florida State 7-3
4. Clemson 6-4
Florida State is likely to win tomorrow, keeping the heat on Carolina for second place in the conference. A little breathing room between Carolina and Florida State is big, since Carolina still has to travel to Tallahassee on March 2nd, so Carolina needs to take care of business in Clemson tomorrow.
The first meeting between the schools saw Carolina win 75-65 in Chapel Hill, running Carolina's winning streak in Chapel Hill to 55 straight v. Clemson. It was also the first start for Kendall Marshall at the point, and Reggie Bullock lead four Carolina double-digit scorers with a career-high 18 points. Clemson was without one of its best shooters in Tanner Smith for the final 30 minutes, after Smith looked to have seriously injured his knee early in the first half. Smith has since returned to the line-up, and his shooting will be something Carolina must look out for tomorrow.
The Edge:
Point Guard: Kendall Marshall v. Demontez Stitt
On experience alone, you have to go with Stitt. He leads the team in scoring, with nearly 14 ppg, and shoots almost 40% from three. But, Marshall has shown how good he can be since becoming the starter, and has lead Carolina to a 5-1 ACC record, with a 2.4 A:TO ratio. Stitt is very good at getting into the lane, and I think this could be an issue for Marshall. Stitt gets the nod because Clemson is at home.
Edge: Stitt
Shooting Guard: Dexter Strickland v. Andre Young
Andre Young is averaging 11 ppg this season, while Strickland is putting up 8.5 ppg. Strickland is going to be a tough match-up for Young, as Strickland stands at 6'4" and is arguably Carolina's best defender. Young comes in at 5'9", and will likely struggle with any guard Carolina throws at him due to size. Young might well see Strickland, McDonald, or Reggie Bullock, all standing 6'4", or taller. Clemson also likes to play at a high pace, and this will help Dexter get out in transition where he is the most effective.
Edge: Strickland
Small Forward: Harrison Barnes v. Tanner Smith
This match up depends solely on Harrison Barnes' aggressiveness in defending Smith along the perimeter. If Barnes is able to translate the defense he played on Kyle Singler into Saturday's game, I can't see Harrison getting outplayed. His offensive game is far superior to Smith's, and I think he continues to play well.
Edge: Barnes
Power Forward: John Henson v. Devin Booker
Booker struggled in the first meeting due to first half foul trouble, playing only 23 minutes. He finished the game with 11 points on 5-8 shooting, but never really got going. Henson finished with 14 points, eight rebounds, and five blocks. This match-up is basically Henson's length v. Booker's strength. Henson has been playing very well lately, while Booker hasn't scored in double-figures in Clemson's last five games.
Edge: Henson
Center: Tyler Zeller v. Jerai Grant
Grant struggled mightily during the first meeting, going 1-12 from the field, and scoring only two points. Zeller scored 11 points on 3-5 shooting, and recorded three blocks. Both players grabbed seven rebounds each. I can't imagine that Grant will play poorly tomorrow, but the length of Henson and Zeller did seem to be an issue during the first meeting. Grant has averaged nearly 15 ppg since the first meeting, and has scored 20 and 17 in Clemson's last two games. Zeller is coming off a huge game at Duke, scoring 24 points and grabbing 13 boards. This match-up is pivotal to the game's outcome, and to me, it's a toss-up.
Edge: Push
The Bench:
Carolina's bench is much more explosive than Clemson's. Reggie Bullock, Leslie McDonald, and Justin Knox are all players that have the ability to put up big numbers. Carolina's top three players off the bench average over 20 points between them, while Clemson's top three substitutes are putting up just over 14 points between them. But, it seems that someone explodes v. Carolina at home, so don't be surprised if you see Milton Jennings or Brian Narcisse have big games tomorrow. McDonald, Bullock, and Knox are coming off sub-par games at Duke in limited minutes, but I expect them to have better games tomorrow. Even with Larry Drew gone, Carolina is the deeper team.
Edge: Carolina
Prediction: Clemson is tough at home, going 5-0 in ACC play. Carolina is 3-2 on the road in ACC play, losing at Georgia Tech and Duke. The Tech loss was an aberration, and the way Carolina played at Duke shows how good this team can be. The big question is whether or not Carolina is able to avoid a let down against a team they should beat. I think this is a close game, but Carolina just edges it at the end.
Carolina 78 - Clemson 75
Just two days after the Drew-Gate story broke, Carolina has to jump back on the horse and take on Florida State in Chapel Hill. Dexter Strickland will likely pick up the slack at the point when Kendall Marshall needs a breather, while also getting minutes at the off-guard spot. Strickland got some burn as the back-up PG last season, and there were moments of brilliance mixed with moments of total disaster, as he netted a 1.15 A/TO ratio in 2009-10.
Results from the last 5 meetings:
2/24/2010: FSU (home) 77 - 67 Carolina
3/14/2010: FSU 73 - 70 Carolina (ACC Tournament)
1/28/2010: Carolina 80 - 77 FSU (home)
3/14/2009: Carolina 82 - 70 FSU (ACC Tournament)
3/4/2009: Carolina (home) 90 - 77 FSU
Carolina wins if.....
1. The rebound battle is won. Florida State is 9th in the nation in total rebounds per game at 40.6. Carolina is 1st in the nation, grabbing 42.4 rebounds per game as a team. The winner of the rebound battle will likely take the game.
2. Roy uses his timeouts efficiently. Roy Williams is notorious for holding onto timeouts and letting his team play through bad spells during games. But, his only true point guard hasn't seen more than 24 minutes in any game this season, and those timeouts will needed to give Kendall extra breathers tomorrow night. Kendall will likely get 30+ minutes, and using timeouts efficiently will be key.
3. Florida State is held to under 40% shooting from the field. Florida State is currently sitting at 6-2 in the ACC, and only one of those wins has come when they shot under 40% as a team. Against Miami, Florida State shot 32%, but won 55-53 in Tallahassee. The other five ACC wins have come when Florida State shot over 40% from the field. Meanwhile, in both conference losses, the Seminoles shot 36% against Virginia Tech, and 33% against Clemson.
4. John Henson can stay out of foul trouble. Chris Singleton is a stud, and is likely a first rounder in this summer's NBA Draft. Henson has played great defense this season, shutting down players like Terrence Jones and CJ Leslie. If Henson can stay on the floor, his length will be huge against a high-caliber player like Singleton.
Prediction: Carolina 81 - 67 FSU. Carolina has been rolling lately, winning 9 of 10. Florida State is coming off a big win v. Wake Forest, though they scored just 44 points at Clemson five days earlier. The Seminoles are also 1-2 on the road in ACC play, while Carolina is undefeated at home this season. Having Kendall Marshall on the floor for extended minutes will ignite the offense, and Carolina goes to 7-1 in the ACC before taking on Duke on Feb. 9th.
Carolina travels to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College tonight, after hammering NC State on the weekend, 84-64. Carolina sits at 15-5 (5-1 ACC), and BC is currently 14-7 (4-3 ACC). The early Vegas line lists Carolina as a two point favorite. Carolina and BC have met only once each of the last two seasons, both being BC victories. The most shocking of the two was the ACC opener in 2009, with BC handing Carolina its first loss of the season.
Last five meetings:
2/20/2010: BC 71(home) - 67 Carolina
1/4/2009: BC 85 - 78 Carolina (home)
1/31/2008: Carolina (home) 91-69 BC
3/1/2008: Carolina 90 - 80 BC (home)
2/17/2007: Carolina 77 - 72 BC (home)
Carolina wins if:
1. The transition game gets going. BC generally plays a slow, controlled offensive set, and Carolina must force turnovers and run. We've seen how the Heels struggle in the halfcourt set on offense, and forcing turnovers and quick run-outs will be key.
2. Harrison Barnes can continue his great play he displayed v. NC State. Barnes had his best offensive game of his short career, scoring 25 points on 10-16 shooting on Saturday. Barnes is supremely talented, and when his shots are falling, he's impossible to guard.
3. Reggie Jackson is held under 20 points. Jackson leads BC in scoring, hitting almost 19 points a game this season, and averaging 21.5 ppg in BC's four ACC victories. But, in BC's three conference losses, Jackson is only averaging 14 ppg.
4. Carolina can neutralize the BC home court advantage. BC is 4-0 in the ACC at home, but 0-3 away. Carolina has to come out like they did against NC State, and not fall behind early like in games against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami.
Carolina has won 8 of 9, while BC has lost 5 of 9. I think Carolina continues to play well, and wins a close, low-scoring game. Prediction: Carolina 71 - BC 65
